The exhilarating rush of purchasing a lottery ticket and dreaming of the potential windfall is a universal phenomenon. Many hopeful participants play the lottery with the conviction that they have a surefire strategy to win. But is winning the lottery truly a matter of skill, or is it purely luck?
Winning the lottery is a matter of luck and not skill, according to most experts in the field. However, there are some rare instances where lottery players have used skill and strategies to increase their odds of winning and the amount of money they win.
As we delve into this topic, we’ll discover the reasons why experts in the field adamantly confirm that winning the lottery is largely a matter of luck, not skill. And then we’ll look at the flip side, uncovering a few players who claim their skills have led them to bonanza jackpot wins.
Would you prefer watching a video to reading this article? We’ve got you covered! Watch our video that tackles the skill versus luck topic, along with highlighting those rare players who managed to pull in millions of dollars with their jackpot strategies.
The reality for those in the know: Winning the lottery takes luck, not skill
Contrary to some long-held popular beliefs, experts say that winning the lottery has nothing to do with skill, patterns, or strategy. Lottery draws are designed to be random.
According to the World Lottery Association, each number combination has an equal chance of being drawn. No amount of analysis or pattern recognition can influence or predict what will be drawn next.
Because each draw is an independent event, it doesn’t rely on or affect the outcome of any other draw. Therefore, no number is “due” to be drawn just because it hasn’t been selected for a while.
Dr. Mark Glickman, a Harvard statistics professor, says that there is only one proven way of boosting your chances of winning the lottery: Your odds only improve by buying more tickets for each game.
Dr. Glickman goes on to say:
“If someone already wins the lottery, then the chance that the person wins the lottery a second time will be exactly the same as the probability they win the lottery if they had not previously won the lottery before… In other words, having previously won the lottery does not improve or make less likely the chance of winning the lottery in the future.”
Harvard statistics professor Dr. Mark Glickman interview with CNBC Make It.
While some people believe that certain strategies or methods can improve their odds of winning the lottery, there is no scientific evidence to support these claims. Ultimately, the outcome of a lottery drawing is determined by chance, and the only way to increase your chances of winning is to buy more tickets.
The perception of skill in winning the lottery
A common misconception among lottery participants is that there’s a secret strategy or system to beat the odds. Some people insist that choosing numbers based on personal or significant dates, such as birthdays or anniversaries, increases the probability of winning. Others claim other good odds-boosting methods include analyzing past lottery results or always sticking with the same numbers.
These beliefs are examples of the “hot hand fallacy” and “gambler’s fallacy,” cognitive biases that make people believe they can predict random events.
The hot hand fallacy is when someone is on a winning streak and believes they just can’t lose. It’s this idea that if you’re doing well in something totally random, your odds of success just keep on climbing.
This sort of thinking pops up a lot in gambling, where people think a lucky streak means more wins are just around the corner.
The other side of this is known as the gambler’s fallacy. With the gambler’s fallacy, people think that if something’s been happening a lot, it’s bound to go the other way soon.
Rare examples of using skill to win the lottery
While winning the lottery is generally considered to be a matter of luck, there are a few rare examples of people who have won the lottery using their skills or knowledge.
Example 1: Michigan retirees, Jerry and Marge Selbee
One such example is Jerry and Marge Selbee, a retired couple from Michigan who won millions of dollars by exploiting a mathematical loophole in the lottery system.
Jerry, who has a bachelor’s degree in mathematics, noticed that a lottery game called “Winfall” had a feature called a “rolldown.” For this game, a rolldown meant that if the jackpot reached the top prize of $5 million and no one matched all six numbers, all the money “rolled down” to the winners who matched fewer numbers.
Jerry realized that he was guaranteed to win money on these secondary prizes if he bought enough tickets. There was nothing illegal about what he was doing. He was simply observant enough to see an opportunity the lottery officials had missed and capitalized on it.
Jerry and Marge set up a corporation to keep detailed records of their winnings. They even invited family and friends to join them in their lottery paydays. All told, they won more than $26 million before the lottery discontinued the Winfall game.
Their story became the basis for a popular Hollywood movie starring Bryan Cranston and Annette Bening called Jerry and Marge Go Large.
Watch this fascinating 60 Minutes interview where Jerry and Marge discuss their lottery strategy and how they acquired their windfall wealth:
Example 2: Math savant and economist, Stefan Mandel
Another example of someone who used skill to win the lottery is Stefan Mandel. This Romanian-Australian economist developed a formula that allowed him to win the lottery an amazing 14 times.
Mandel’s method involved calculating the total number of possible combinations in a given lottery. He would then purchase every single combination to guarantee a win.
Mandel’s biggest win occurred on February 15, 1992, courtesy of the Virginia State Lottery. His unorthodox lottery strategy snagged him the state’s $27,036,142 jackpot.
But that’s not all. In the same drawing, he won six second prizes, 132 third prizes, and 135,000 smaller prizes. These prizes added another $900,000 to his over $27 million win.
It’s important to note that Mandel’s method required a large amount of money and a team of people to buy the tickets. Due to changes in lottery rules, Mandel’s lottery-winning method no longer works.
Example 3: Statistics expert, Joan Ginther
A third example is Joan Ginther, who won the Texas Lottery four times between 1993 and 2010. Ginther, who has a PhD in statistics from Stanford University, is believed to have used her knowledge of mathematics and probability to increase her chances of winning.
Called by some “the luckiest woman on Earth,” Ginther won four large jackpots totaling over $20.4 million. The first win came in 1993 when she won $5.4 million in the Texas pick six lottery drawing. Then between 2006 and 2010, she won $15 million, all from playing Texas scratcher ticket games.
Ginther’s exact methods are shrouded in secrecy. I could not find any interviews where she discussed how she accomplished her lottery-winning feats. Given her background in math and statistics, one might assume she used her skills to win such large jackpots.
But could it have been an incredible run of astronomical odds-beating luck instead? We may never know.
Luck or skill? What do you believe?
While the above stories of people winning the lottery are fun to read, it’s important to note that these examples are rare. For most people, winning the lottery is still considered to be a matter of luck rather than skill. Experts emphasize that each lottery draw is a separate, random event, and every number combination has an equal chance of winning.
As such, it is crucial to understand that playing the lottery should be a form of entertainment rather than an investment strategy or a reliable way to make money. Above all, when playing the lottery, it’s essential to play responsibly and within your financial means.